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Link Rot Forecast Calculator

Reviewed for 2026, updated September 8, 2026.

Forecasts how many outbound links on a site will die each month and how many are broken at any given moment under a scheduled audit versus continuous monitoring, for editors and SEO teams planning a link checking schedule.

Your numbers

Results update as you type.

Your estimate

New dead links per month...
Average days a dead link stays live...
Dead links live at any moment...
Expected dead links over 12 months...

Estimates only. Assumptions are listed below, and you can change every input.

Links do not break all at once. They decay steadily as the sites you point to reorganize, expire or shut down, and the question for a site owner is not whether links will rot but how many are broken right now and how long each one stays broken before anyone notices. This calculator turns an annual rot rate and your checking schedule into a forecast so you can pick an audit interval that matches how much breakage you are willing to tolerate.

The forecast applies an annual rot rate you choose to your current outbound link count to get expected new dead links per month. It then models how long a dead link survives before being fixed. With scheduled audits, a link that dies waits on average half the audit interval to be detected, plus your fix time. With continuous monitoring, detection is treated as same day, so only the fix time counts. The number of dead links live at any moment is the monthly break rate spread over that average lifetime. The yearly total accounts for links you keep adding, which also rot over time.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter how many outbound links the site has today and how many you add each month. A crawl of the site gives you the first number; your publishing pace gives you the second.
  2. Set the annual rot rate. If you have two past audits, divide the dead links found by the total links and scale to a year; otherwise start with the default and refine later.
  3. Choose scheduled audits or continuous monitoring, set the interval and fix time, and compare how many dead links are live at any moment under each option.

What the math assumes

  • The annual rot rate is applied evenly across the year to the current link count; it is an input with a default of 5% that you should replace with your own measured rate.
  • Dead links appear at a steady pace, so under scheduled audits a link waits on average half the audit interval before it is detected.
  • Continuous monitoring is modeled as same day detection, so the only delay is your fix time.
  • The 12 month total assumes new links are added at a constant monthly pace and start rotting at the same annual rate from the month after they are added.
  • A month is treated as 365.25 divided by 12 days, and links already dead today are not counted in the forecast.

Frequently asked questions

How do I measure my own annual rot rate?

Run two full link checks some months apart. Divide the number of links that were working at the first check and dead at the second by the total links checked, then scale that share to 12 months. Sites that link heavily to news, social posts or small blogs usually see higher rates than sites linking to documentation and institutions.

Why does the audit interval change how many links are broken at once?

A dead link stays dead until someone notices. If you only look every 90 days, a link that breaks the day after an audit waits almost three months. Averaged over all links, that wait is half the interval, and the longer the wait, the more dead links pile up on the site at the same time.

Does the forecast include internal links?

It is built for outbound links, which rot on other people's schedules. Internal links break for different reasons, usually a page being moved or deleted on your own site, so they are better tracked by monitoring your own changes than by a decay rate.

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More free tools from LinkRotly

  • Broken Link Revenue Loss Calculator: Estimates how many sessions, conversions and dollars a website loses each month to visitors who hit a dead link, for marketers and site owners who need a number before they can justify fixing it.
  • Manual Link Audit Time and Cost Calculator: Estimates how many hours and dollars it takes to check every link on a website by hand, for content teams and agencies deciding whether to automate link checking.

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